Most traders believe that high returns always come with high risk. But seasoned market participants know that there exist rare, almost paradoxical trades where the risk is minimal and the potential — extraordinary. In this article, we'll break down examples of such trades and try to understand the underlying patterns behind them.
Taleb, Spitznagel, and returns of 4,000% +
In March 2020, Universa Investments announced that their tail hedge delivered over 4,000% returns during the COVID market crash. According to Mark Spitznagel, for every $1 spent over the years on purchasing options, the fund generated $30–100+ in profit at the peak of the crash. Universa reported that its clients earned "tens of billions of dollars in profits" from those tail hedges.
The essence of the strategy lies in buying cheap, far-out-of-the-money put options — essentially insurance against a rare "end-of-the-world" event. During calm years, these options lose value, but when catastrophe strikes, their prices skyrocket nonlinearly.
Most investors underestimate tail risks and are unwilling to pay for protection against events that may never happen. As a result, such options often trade far below their true insurance value for long periods of time.
Taleb and Spitznagel's tail-hedging is the art of turning rare catastrophes into a source of outsized returns — sacrificing small amounts for years in exchange for one explosive payoff that more than makes up for everything.
In forecasting, what matters is not predicting the future, but understanding the fragility of the system — and betting on its breaking point. — Nassim Taleb
Tech giants and the "$1 Trillion+ Club"
Every member of this club — Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Meta, TSMC, Broadcom, and Tesla — followed a similar path: from a single breakthrough product to building an entire ecosystem-driven world.
Those who bet on these ideas in their earliest stages were rewarded exponentially — thousands of times over for their belief in the unconventional.
What all these companies have in common:
- Eccentric founders with unconventional vision and exceptionally long-term thinking
- Vast, expandable markets and globally scalable products
- A unique mission that resonates with humanity
- Products that feel like magic and evoke emotion
- The ability to attract attention and capital — turning investor and user belief into fuel for growth
Better to be wrong on something non-consensus than right on something obvious. — Marc Andreessen, a16z
Bitcoin and its rise from $0.003 to $120,000
Bitcoin was originally created as a means of payment, but the world embraced it as a store of value and a shield against the fiat–credit system with its eternal ailments — ever-growing debt and inflation. The combination of limited supply, trust in open-source code, network effects, and the anticipation of future scarcity created an explosive outcome: no single factor explains its rise — only their synergy does.
Even with all its flaws, Bitcoin became the most precise bet against the fragility of the fiat–credit world.
Bitcoin is our insurance against the corruption and incompetence of central banks. — Chamath Palihapitiya, Social Capital.
CS2 Weapon Cases and a 3,600x surge
The surge in CS2 weapon case prices isn't driven solely by high demand — it's also the result of their deflationary model. During the first year, these cases dropped freely to all players, but after that, the issuance was halted — no new cases are created anymore. This turned them into a limited digital asset, essentially a gaming analog of Bitcoin.
However, unlike Bitcoin, CS2 cases disappear from circulation once opened, creating a continuous supply contraction over time.
Thus, this economic model actually surpasses Bitcoin — which has a capped supply but no true deflation. When players open cases, they receive weapon skins — inflationary assets whose total quantity keeps growing, so their prices rise much more slowly.
As a result, the combination of limited supply, human excitement, and built-in deflation has driven the value of CS2 weapon cases to soar more than 3,600 times.
Deflation is the opposite of inflation: while inflation erodes the value of money, deflation increases it.
For decades, many politicians and economists have instilled the belief that deflation is a threat and moderate inflation is a blessing. In reality, this narrative merely justifies a system where debt and monetary debasement sustain power and finance deficits. It benefits those in control when money constantly loses value — it makes it easier to manage the masses, erase debts, and create the illusion of growth.
DeflationCoin is the synthesis of scarcity, antifragility, and systemic disruption
DeflationCoin unites elements that once existed separately:
- A bet on the fragility of large, inefficient systems — the philosophy of Taleb.
- Eccentric founders with unconventional thinking and a long-term vision — the kind found behind every trillion-dollar company.
- An architecture designed for capital accumulation — like Bitcoin's, but far more advanced.
- Built-in deflation — the key factor that drove CS2 cases to grow 3,600x in value.
Everything great once seemed insane — until it became obvious. The world is changed not by those who hesitate, but by those who act first.
We invite every reader to become part of this great story!
If you believe it's a generational founder, price should not be the reason you pass. You should be fighting to make it work no matter what. — pet3rpan, generational investor, 1kx